Reference
Validation
How the model's CAPEX compares to real CO₂ pipelines.
The CAPEX model was sanity-checked two ways: against four real CO₂ pipeline projects (operational or planned), and against a set of Portuguese routing scenarios I designed for the original dissertation. The goal isn’t an exact match — it’s to show the estimates are plausible for preliminary planning.
Reference pipelines vs model scenarios
CS1–CS4 are case studies I designed for my dissertation — Portuguese routes I chose myself (Leiria–Coimbra, Sines–Leiria and Sagres–Bragança) and ran through the tool. The others are real CO₂ pipeline projects (operational or planned) used as a reference. Costs are normalised to 2010 euros.
| Pipeline / scenario | Flow (kg/s) | Diameter (mm) | Length (km) | CAPEX (M€₂₀₁₀) | M€/km |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cortez (real) | 761 | 762 | 808 | 1193 | 1.48 |
| Weyburn (real) | 63 | 305–356 | 330 | 39 | 0.12 |
| Quest (real) | 38 | 324 | 84 | 100 | 1.19 |
| Qinshui (real) | 16 | 152 | 116 | 32 | 0.28 |
| CS1 · Leiria–Coimbra | 38 | 254 | 60 | 23 | 0.38 |
| CS2 · Sines–Leiria | 38 | 254 | 237 | 90 | 0.38 |
| CS3 · Sines–Leiria | 63 | 311 | 237 | 110 | 0.46 |
| CS4 · Sagres–Bragança | 761 | 843 | 619 | 778 | 1.26 |
What it shows
- Within range. The model’s unit costs (0.38–1.26 M€/km) fall inside the real-world range (0.12–1.48 M€/km).
- Like-for-like. CS4 and Cortez share the same 761 kg/s flow: the model gives 1.26 vs the real 1.48 M€/km (~15% lower — a shorter route and no US construction premiums).
- The diameter effect. CS2 and CS3 share the same 237 km route; raising the flow 38 → 63 kg/s drives the diameter 254 → 311 mm and the cost 90 → 110 M€ — exactly what the diameter relation predicts.
References
- Real-pipeline parameters (flow, diameter, cost): Noothout, P. et al. (2014). CO₂ Pipeline Infrastructure – Lessons Learnt. Energy Procedia, 63, 2481–2492. doi:10.1016/j.egypro.2014.11.271
- Costs were deflated to 2010 euros (US BLS Consumer Price Index; 1 EUR = 1.326 USD, 2010 average).
- The COMET reference cost factors used by the model come from van den Broek et al. (2013) — see the COMET cost model.